Before the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus, the probability of the use of nuclear weapons by Russia against Lithuania would have been relatively low, as it would have required Russia to cross a
significant threshold and risk significant international backlash. However, the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus could potentially increase the probability of their use, as it could create a sense of impunity for Russia and undermine deterrence mechanisms. Why Lithuania though? I do not want to elaborate on it as it is pretty basic- Russians need a NATO country but a small country as it should not have much of its own army and close to the Russian border as it is necessary for the plot as you will see from the below text.
Despite, asit is worth noting that the use of nuclear weapons is a highly complex decision that would depend on a variety of factors, including military and political considerations, as well as the perceived threat level. The fact that Russia has other means of delivering conventional weapons, such as the Iskander missile with 4,500 kilometers of effective range, makes the idea of deployment of the tactical
nuclear weapons in Belarus totally redundant from the military prospective.
This does not necessarily mean that the Russians would not use tactical nuclear weapons if they deemed it necessary as they have them plenty. The usage of the tactical nuclear weapons requires however a military cause which cannot be seriously justified in a situation when Russai has actually started the war against Ukraine. Russia could have turned their population into brainless zombies, but the Russian authorities could not have forgotten that they had started the war.
But what if the reasoning behind the tactical nuclear attack hasnothing to do with the war of Russia against Ukraine? Let’s imagine for a second that the idea behind it is to seize fire without any conditions? The Ukrainian President won’t agree to a truce with Russia as it is not only winning the war, but more- he is getting all the resources to strike hard the weak and badly managed Russian troops with highly superior Western weapons. If the Russians had to apply nuclear weaponsagainst Ukraine, the NATO, as they had warned the Russians, would destroy the Russian troops, and literally behead the Russian Government. So, a no-goer even for mal-educated ex-KGB majors.
What if, however we add another variable into this equation? What if the idea to attack Ukraine initially (in 2014) had to do not with the occupation of Ukraine, but was used as a decoy operation of China conquering Damansky territories on the Far East – a huge territory of Russia simply donated to China in 2014, and further- devouring Russia by the Chineese dragon? What if the war simply continued in its active phase once the method has been probed? There are so many factors that I personally know that prove this theory from massive fires in Siberia and the Far East to weird communication patterns with North Korea suggesting that the information passes further to China.
The involvement of China in any potential conflict could also be a significant factor, as it could potentially embolden Russia and escalate the situation. However, it is difficult to predict how China would respond if their involvement into the orchestration of the situation would become apparent, as their actions would likely depend on a variety of factors, including their own strategic interests and the potential risks assessment.
The tactical consequences. Let’s park this idea and spend a littleeffort on the simulation of the nuclear weapons application. In general, the use of nuclear weapons would be catastrophic and result in immense human suffering, as well as significant environmental and economic damage. The immediate consequences of a nuclear attack would depend on a variety of factors, such as the size and type of the weapon used, the target, and the prevailing weather conditions. The mere fact of a nuclear weapon used in a conflict would however be the main factor of the use. The Russians keep stressing that the weapon is “tactical” or small. There is just one reason for this as I see it- bring a good narrative to help their agents among the Western Governments and also the useful idiots to help them to seize fire right away and the mere destruction of Belarus means nothing to the beneficiaries of the attack if we only assume that the
beneficiary of this attack is China.
The immediate consequences. Assuming a strategic or tactical nuclear weapon was used against a populated area, the immediate consequences could include the instantaneous destruction of buildings and infrastructure, as well as a significant loss of life. The effects of a nuclear explosion would also include a blast wave, intense heat, and radiation, which could cause injuries and fatalities over a wide area. The use of nuclear weapons would also likely have significant geopolitical consequences, including a massive escalation of tensions between Russia and NATO, potentially leading to a wider conflict. International
condemnation and sanctions would be likely, and Russia could face severe diplomatic and economic consequences. Let’s be specific here. If, let’s say, a missile with a tactical nuclear warhead is fired from the territory of Belarus, the NATO forces will immediately demolish the Belarus infrastructure including
bridges, power stations, airports, railway knots, roads intersections. I see 50,000+ casualties of the Belarus population right away. Russians however could not care less and the moreover China. Let’s discuss it further though.
General dictu. The use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia from Belarus on Lithuania would have severe consequences for Russia and the world. The use of nuclear weapons, even tactical ones, would be considered a major escalation of the conflict, and would likely lead to a strong response from the international community, including the European Union and NATO. One potential consequence of
the use of nuclear weapons by Russia from Belarus on Lithuania would be a complete blockade of Russia from the European side. This could include the closure of borders, suspension of trade and diplomatic relations, and other economic and political measures to isolate Russia. The impact of such a blockade would be significant, as Europe is a major trading partner and source of resources for Russia.
In addition to the blockade, the international community would likely impose the strictest sanctions policies on Russia, which would further isolate the country economically and politically. These sanctions could include restrictions on the sale of natural resources, the freezing of Russian assets held in foreign
banks, and the suspension of visa-free travel for Russian citizens. The use of tactical nuclear weapons would also have serious consequences for global security and could potentially lead to a wider conflict. The use of nuclear weapons by any country would violate established norms and trigger a significant international response. It would likely lead to an arms race and an escalation of tensions between nuclear-armed nations, with unpredictable and potentially catastrophic consequences.
In summary, the use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia from Belarus on Lithuania would have severe consequences for Russia, including a complete blockade from the European side, strict sanctions policies, and potentially wider geopolitical consequences. It is critical that all parties involved work to prevent the use of nuclear weapons and promote peaceful resolutions to conflicts. So, overall, the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus could potentially increase the probability of their use, but the decision to use them would depend on a variety of complex and unpredictable factors. The situation is highly fluid,
and it is important to closely monitor developments and analyze them carefully but even a very quick analysys shows that Russia will with a high probability not benefit from the nuclear weapons application. As opposed to China.
What if China is the plotter? If China were to be the main plotter behind the attack by Russia on Ukraine and the subsequent use of tactical nuclear weapons against Lithuania, it would likely have significant geopolitical consequences. China's involvement in such a scenario could embolden Russia to act more
aggressively and escalate the conflict, leading to a wider regional or even global conflict. If Russia were to use tactical nuclear weapons against Lithuania, it would be a significant escalation of the conflict, and the
international community would likely respond with condemnation, sanctions, and potentially even military action. The use of nuclear weapons would be considered a grave violation of international norms and could lead to a catastrophic loss of life and damage to the environment.
In the eventof a hypothetical scenario where China would be the main beneficiary of such a tactical nuclear attack, it would have significant consequences for global power dynamics. China's status as a rising superpower and its expanding global influence could potentially be strengthened by such an attack. However, it is difficult to predict how other countries, such as the United States and the European Union, would respond to such a scenario.
If I were the United States President and wanted to prevent theuse of nuclear weapons on Lithuania from Belarus, one possible approach would be to engage in diplomatic efforts to promote de-escalation and peaceful resolution of the conflict. This could involve working with NATO allies, Russia, and China to find a negotiated settlement that would avoid the use of nuclear weapons.
CondemningChina or threatening to consider the attack as an act of war could potentially escalate the situation and create further tensions between the United States, China, and other countries involved in the conflict. It is important to approach the situation with a measured response and to avoid actions that could potentially lead to a wider conflict.
Stoppingtrade and maritime communications could have significant economic consequences
for all parties involved and could further escalate the situation. It is important to carefully consider the potential consequences of any actions taken and to prioritize peaceful resolution of conflicts.
In summary,engaging in diplomatic efforts to promote de-escalation and peaceful resolution
of conflicts is likely to be the most effective approach to preventing the use of nuclear weapons on Lithuania, rather than engaging in condemnation or threats of war against other governments. It is important to prioritize stability and avoid actions that could potentially lead to wider conflicts or
economic consequences.
However, I would make it clear to the Chineese Government that if there be a connection, or the connection is found or even seriously suspicioned, between the Russian nuclear attack and the Chineese involvement, both the Russian and Chineese Governments are going to be instantly physically eliminated.
Overall, it is critical to promote international cooperation and stability and prevent the use of nuclear weapons and violent conflict. The consequences of a hypothetical scenario involving China, Russia, and Ukraine are difficult to predict and could potentially have catastrophic consequences for global security and stability.